When I heard that Craig Thomson was going to make a statement to the Commonwealth Parliament in response to the allegations against him I thought, "What can he possibly say? After all, he's guilty as sin, so he can't refute the allegations." Then I realised I wasn't being remotely cynical enough, so I tried a thought experiment:
Step One: Assume that the statement itself is insignificant.
Step Two: Note the timing. It is scheduled for Monday, 21st May 2012. A week is a long time in politics and ten days is a very long time. There was one sitting day left in which the independent members might have been persuaded to vote to suspend Thomson and deprive Labor of his vote. The week between now and the 21st is a non-sitting week.
Step Three: Find a(nother) rat in the Coalition ranks to stave off Labor's doom.
So there's my conspiracy for the week: Thomson's move is to stall the independents until the ALP has completed the grooming of the new rat.